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Friday, 27 December 2013

South Sudan: What's going on?

The world's newest country descends into violence and chaosThe United Nations scrambles to ease the carnage and protect civilians150 Marines are positioned in Djibouti to help evacuate AmericansThe United States urges opposing leaders to talk instead of fight

(CNN) -- Two weeks ago, South Sudan was best known as the youngest African country, created with much international fanfare in 2011. Today, it is possibly the next Rwanda.

A flash-fire conflict threatening to escalate into full-blown civil war combines trademark elements of African tragedy -- resource wealth coveted by global powers, in this case oil, and longstanding political and ethnic divisions.

Here's a quick primer to get you up to speed on the escalating situation:

1) First things first. Tell me about South Sudan.

South Sudan is a landlocked country of more than 11 million people in central Africa, bordering Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Democratic Republic of Congo and the Central African Republic.

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Clashes between rival groups of soldiers in the capital of Juba a week ago have spread across the country. cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length] = {"currentPicture":true,"x":6,"y":1,"pos":1,"title":"Escaping violence in South Sudan"}Families seek refuge in a camp warehouse inside the United Nations Mission in Sudan facility in Jabel, on December 23. President Salva Kiir, from South Sudan's Dinka ethnic group, has accused former Vice President Riek Machar, a Nuer whom he dismissed in July, of trying to launch a coup. Machar dismissed the charge but has since said he is commanding troops fighting the government. Families seek refuge in a camp warehouse inside the United Nations Mission in Sudan facility in Jabel, on December 23. President Salva Kiir, from South Sudan's Dinka ethnic group, has accused former Vice President Riek Machar, a Nuer whom he dismissed in July, of trying to launch a coup. Machar dismissed the charge but has since said he is commanding troops fighting the government. cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length] = {"currentPicture":false,"x":6,"y":1,"pos":2,"title":"Escaping violence in South Sudan"}People gather to receive emergency dry food rations distributed by the World Food Program at a makeshift camp on December 23. People gather to receive emergency dry food rations distributed by the World Food Program at a makeshift camp on December 23. cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length] = {"currentPicture":false,"x":6,"y":1,"pos":3,"title":"Escaping violence in South Sudan"}On Sunday, December 22, the United Nations relocates noncritical staff from Juba to Entebbe, Uganda. Civilian helicopters evacuated U.S. citizens from the violent South Sudan city of Bor, capital of Jonglei state, which has had bouts of heavy machine gun fire. Some 3,000 citizens from Canada, Britain and Kenya remain trapped there, a top U.N. official said Monday. On Sunday, December 22, the United Nations relocates noncritical staff from Juba to Entebbe, Uganda. Civilian helicopters evacuated U.S. citizens from the violent South Sudan city of Bor, capital of Jonglei state, which has had bouts of heavy machine gun fire. Some 3,000 citizens from Canada, Britain and Kenya remain trapped there, a top U.N. official said Monday. cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length] = {"currentPicture":false,"x":6,"y":1,"pos":4,"title":"Escaping violence in South Sudan"}A South Sudanese girl puts her family's laundry out to dry on a barbed wire fence at a makeshift U.N. camp in Juba on December 22. A South Sudanese girl puts her family's laundry out to dry on a barbed wire fence at a makeshift U.N. camp in Juba on December 22.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length] = {"currentPicture":false,"x":6,"y":1,"pos":5,"title":"Escaping violence in South Sudan"} The World Food Program distributes food for displaced people at a U.N. compound in Bentiu, the capital of the oil-producing Unity state, on December 22. The World Food Program distributes food for displaced people at a U.N. compound in Bentiu, the capital of the oil-producing Unity state, on December 22. cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length] = {"currentPicture":false,"x":6,"y":1,"pos":6,"title":"Escaping violence in South Sudan"}South Sudanese women carry water in a U.N. camp in Juba on December 22. South Sudanese women carry water in a U.N. camp in Juba on December 22. cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length] = {"currentPicture":false,"x":6,"y":1,"pos":7,"title":"Escaping violence in South Sudan"}People taking refuge on December 22 near a camp of Japan's Ground Self-Defense Force, part of a U.N. peacekeeping mission in Juba. People taking refuge on December 22 near a camp of Japan's Ground Self-Defense Force, part of a U.N. peacekeeping mission in Juba. cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length] = {"currentPicture":false,"x":6,"y":1,"pos":8,"title":"Escaping violence in South Sudan"}South Sudanese civilians fleeing an outbreak of intense fighting take shelter at a U.N. mission on Tuesday, December 17. South Sudanese civilians fleeing an outbreak of intense fighting take shelter at a U.N. mission on Tuesday, December 17.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length] = {"currentPicture":false,"x":6,"y":1,"pos":9,"title":"Escaping violence in South Sudan"} South Sudanese civilians seek shade at the base on December 17. South Sudanese civilians seek shade at the base on December 17. cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length] = {"currentPicture":false,"x":6,"y":1,"pos":10,"title":"Escaping violence in South Sudan"}Up to 40,000 civilians have taken refuge in U.N. bases in the country, the world body says. These civilians were photographed on December 17 at one of the bases. Up to 40,000 civilians have taken refuge in U.N. bases in the country, the world body says. These civilians were photographed on December 17 at one of the bases.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length] = {"currentPicture":false,"x":6,"y":1,"pos":11,"title":"Escaping violence in South Sudan"} A young child takes shelter at a U.N. base on December 17. An estimated 62,000 people have been displaced. A young child takes shelter at a U.N. base on December 17. An estimated 62,000 people have been displaced.cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList[cnnArticleGallery.currentImageList.length] = {"currentPicture":false,"x":6,"y":1,"pos":12,"title":"Escaping violence in South Sudan"} Escaping violence in South SudanEscaping violence in South SudanEscaping violence in South SudanEscaping violence in South SudanEscaping violence in South SudanEscaping violence in South SudanEscaping violence in South SudanEscaping violence in South SudanEscaping violence in South SudanEscaping violence in South SudanEscaping violence in South SudanEscaping violence in South SudanEscaping violence in South Sudan Escaping violence in South Sudan var currExpandable="expand26";if(typeof CNN.expandableMap==='object'){CNN.expandableMap.push(currExpandable);}var mObj={};mObj.type='video';mObj.contentId='';mObj.network='cnnintl';mObj.source='bestoftv/2013/12/24/ac-starr-south-sudan.cnn';mObj.videoSource='CNN';mObj.videoSourceUrl='http://ac360.blogs.cnn.com/';mObj.lgImage="http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/dam/assets/131223204305-ac-starr-south-sudan-00004611-story-body.jpg";mObj.lgImageX=300;mObj.lgImageY=169;mObj.origImageX="214";mObj.origImageY="120";mObj.contentType='video';CNN.expElements.expand26Store=mObj;var currExpandable="expand36";if(typeof CNN.expandableMap==='object'){CNN.expandableMap.push(currExpandable);}var mObj={};mObj.type='video';mObj.contentId='';mObj.network='cnnintl';mObj.source='world/2013/12/24/intv-laam-south-sudan-violence.cnn';mObj.videoSource='CNN';mObj.videoSourceUrl='';mObj.lgImage="http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/dam/assets/131224100230-intv-laam-south-sudan-violence-00031405-story-body.jpg";mObj.lgImageX=300;mObj.lgImageY=169;mObj.origImageX="214";mObj.origImageY="120";mObj.contentType='video';CNN.expElements.expand36Store=mObj;It gained independence from Sudan on July 9, 2011, making it the world's newest nation after decades of ethnic and political conflict between the Sudanese government in Khartoum and opposition elements in the South.

Two years later, South Sudan remains one of Africa's most impoverished countries despite containing the majority of known Sudanese oil reserves.

2) Who is fighting whom?

The South Sudanese government and military, dominated by the Dinka ethnic group of President Salva Kiir, is fighting rebels allied with former Vice President Riek Machar of the Nuer ethnic group.

At stake for now is control of oil-rich regions responsible for more than 95% of the country's economy, and perhaps leadership of the country.

Mass killings and other violence in the past two weeks have caused tens of thousands of people to seek shelter under protection from U.N. forces in Juba, the capital, and some other cities.

More U.N. peacekeepers from Africa and perhaps elsewhere may be coming soon, and 150 U.S. Marines are on standby in Djibouti to assist if needed in evacuating American government and aid workers from the country.

3) Is this something new?

Yes and no. While the sudden escalation of the conflict in recent days caught many by surprise, the causes were familiar.

South Sudan's independence two years ago followed decades of rebellion by various ethnic and political groups against the Khartoum government in Sudan.

Kiir and Machar were longtime rivals who had an uneasy relationship atop the government, with Machar making clear his presidential ambitions.

The valued oil resources and history of ethnic divisions amounted to a recipe for political mayhem, noted Jon Temin, an Africa specialist at the United States Institute of Peace.

"It didn't start about oil," Temin told CNN on Tuesday, adding that the political rivalry at the top was "no secret to anybody."

4) What triggered the recent violence?

Kiir fired his Cabinet, including Machar, in July in a shuffle considered "not uncommon" for such a fledgling African nation, Temin said. While the move caused concern, a relatively calm aftermath bolstered hopes of continued stability.

However, that unraveled in mid-December with gunfire between security forces loyal to Kiir and Machar. It remains unclear who fired the first shot, according to Temin.

Kiir accused forces backing Machar of launching a coup attempt, and retribution attacks erupted with top allies of Machar detained. Machar has denied any coup attempt occurred.

"It has been surprising in how quickly it spread," Temin said.

5) Where do things stand?

The situation is both dire and uncertain.

Consider this grim report Tuesday from Ravina Shamdasani of the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, who said an official saw more than 30 bodies in two mass graves and that the global body was trying to verify the existence of others.

"It is very difficult, and there are reports that some bodies may have already been burned," Shamdasani added.

The United Nations said fighting had spread to five of South Sudan's 10 states, and that it had credible reports civilians were being attacked and killed based on their ethnicity.

Meanwhile, U.N. officials struggled to make accommodations for some 45,000 people crowding its compounds seeking shelter from the violence. Nearly as many people were seeking shelter elsewhere.

The U.N. Security Council voted unanimously on Tuesday to increase the 6,800-strong U.N. force in South Sudan by another 5,500 troops to try to ensure the safety of the displaced, a role that peacekeepers failed to fulfill in the Rwanda genocide of 1994 that killed 800,000 people.

"Even with additional capabilities, we will not be able to protect every civilian in need in South Sudan," U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon warned after the vote, adding that "there is no military solution to this conflict."

On Monday, Ban said in a message to the people of South Sudan that "the U.N. stood with you on your road to independence," and that "we will stay with you now."

6) Where does the United States stand?

The United States was one of the strongest supporters of South Sudan's independence for a few reasons.

A democratic South Sudan could be a regional hedge against the Khartoum regime, which the United States lists as a sponsor of terrorism, and President Omar al-Bashir, who has been indicted on charges of war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide.

In addition, the possibility exists of future U.S. involvement in South Sudan's oil industry. U.S. oil companies have no role now in South Sudan due to sanctions against Sudan, which still plays a major role in overall oil production.

Secretary of State John Kerry has urged Kiir and Machar to enter peace talks, but there was no clear signal that the fighting would ease. Kerry also dispatched his special envoy to Sudan and South Sudan, Donald Booth, to the country.

In a statement Monday, the U.S. military's Africa Command said it was positioning 150 Marines in Djibouti in East Africa to be able to respond should conditions in South Sudan deteriorate even more.

CNN Pentagon Correspondent Barbara Starr reported Tuesday that 50 of the Marines then proceeded to Entebbe, Uganda, to be even closer to South Sudan if needed.

The decision grew out of last year's experience in Benghazi, Libya, when no U.S. forces were close enough to respond quickly to the attack that killed U.S. Ambassador Christopher Stevens and three other Americans.

According to a senior administration official, 380 Americans and about another 300 third-country nationals have been evacuated.

"Based on registration, there are American citizens in other towns and areas throughout South Sudan," the official said. "We are trying to track down how many may still be there."

CNN's Mike Pearson, Khushbu Shah, Jennifer Rizzo, Marie-Louise Gumuchian, Barbara Starr and Antonia Mortensen and journalist Mading Ngor in Juba, South Sudan, contributed to this report.

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What's next for ANC after Mandela?

By Justice Malala, South African political commentator, Special to CNNDecember 17, 2013 -- Updated 1551 GMT (2351 HKT) A statue of former South African president Nelson Mandela is unveiled at the Union Buildings in Pretoria on December 16, 2013.A statue of former South African president Nelson Mandela is unveiled at the Union Buildings in Pretoria on December 16, 2013.After Nelson Mandela's death, South Africa is a country adrift, says Justice MalalaDespite the peace and stability of the past 20 years, storm clouds are loomingSpats over memorial, funeral led to accusations country's leaders are out-of-touchNext election planned for 2014; ANC likely to retain power but may lose massive majorityEditor's note: Justice Malala is a South African political commentator, newspaper columnist and talk show host. Follow him on Twitter @justicemalala. The views expressed in this commentary are solely his.

Johannesburg, South Africa (CNN) -- After 10 days of mourning and thousands of emotional eulogies and speeches, South Africa finally buried its most famous son, Nelson Mandela, on Sunday at his rural village of Qunu in the Eastern Cape.

Speaking at the funeral, Ahmed Kathrada, Mandela's close comrade and a man he spent 26 of his 27 years in prison with, brought tears to the 4,500 assembled dignitaries and the nation when he concluded his eulogy:

"When Walter [Sisulu, another Rivonia trialist with whom the two were imprisoned] died I lost a father. Now I have lost a brother. My life is in a void and I don't know who to turn to."

Today the country blinks the tears away from its eyes and confronts its own void: Mandela is gone, and what now?

South Africa is a country adrift. Despite the admirable peace and stability of the past 20 years, storm clouds are looming for the nation today led by President Jacob Zuma, Mandela's third successor.

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The spat over the apparent failure by government to make proper arrangements for Nobel laureate Archbishop Desmond Tutu -- a fierce Zuma critic -- to attend Mandela's funeral added to perceptions that a small coterie of arrogant, out-of-touch leaders around Zuma were at the helm of the country.

In the same week, Parliament published a notorious new secrecy law (the Protection of State Information Act) which will criminalize whistleblowers and journalists for exposing stories such as the spending of ZAR208-million ($20M) of taxpayer funds on Zuma's rural palace in his home village, Nkandla.

Zuma ascended to power in 2009 with promises of jobs for the poor, but unemployment has stubbornly hovered at 25%. About 52.8% of young people under 34 are on the streets.

The economy is in trouble, with growth forecasts cut again and again over the past four years. Third quarter growth was an anaemic 0.7%, and full-year GDP growth is forecast at 1.9% by most economists, while the rest of South Africa's peers such as Nigeria forge ahead at growth rates of about 5.6%.

Perceptions of corruption are on the rise, says the non-governmental organization Corruption Watch. The country slipped three places in Transparency International's corruption index this year to 72nd out of 177 countries.

Thabo Mbeki, Mandela's successor who was removed from the presidency by Zuma in 2008, said last week that there was increasing frustration among ordinary people about the direction the country was taking.

"So when they look at some of the things that are happening....when they see this corruption in the country, which seems to be increasing at all levels of government, the people are aggrieved. They are saying but this is not what freedom was for," he said.

The 10-day period of Mandela's mourning amplified Mbeki's words.

'Fake interpreter' scandal

The now internationally notorious "fake interpreter" at Mandela's memorial, for example, has extensive links with the ruling ANC: he is employed at a company owned by the party's religious desk chief.

The man is not proficient in sign language. He is also schizophrenic -- and he stood a meter from some of the world's most powerful leaders, including U.S. President Barack Obama.

Not a single person has been sanctioned for hiring him, seven days after the scandal broke. Ordinary South Africans inured to corruption told me last week that they have no doubt that his hiring was corruptly influenced.

Apart from shining a harsh new light on our current leaders' failings, though, there is an added silver lining to Mandela's death. Members of the ruling ANC and society are now asking questions about the current crop of leaders' ability to get South Africa out of its current slump.

As Mandela was buried, the big political question is whether Zuma's presidency -- wracked by scandal and presiding over a protest for services such as water and electricity every second day -- would survive after he was booed in front of the international media and more than 91 heads of states and dignitaries.

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A snap poll by South Africa's largest weekend newspaper, the Sunday Times, published on the day of Mandela's funeral, shows that 51% of registered ANC voters believe Zuma should resign following widespread coverage of the use of taxpayers money to build his rural palace.

South Africa's fifth democratic elections will be held in the next six months, and although analysts expect the ANC to win without much trouble, few expect the party to hold on to its huge majority. From its current 65.9% the ANC's support could fall to less than 60% according to one group.

Is South Africa about to descend into racial conflagration because Mandela is gone, though? Doomsayers have beaten this drum many times before in the past 19 years, even when Mandela left government in 1999. It has not come to pass, and is a scenario that is unlikely.

The real challenges for South Africa today are poverty, inequality and unemployment. Zuma's presidency has failed to implement necessary structural changes -- the ANC is in alliance with the powerful trade union federation Cosatu and kowtows to it on labour policy, leading to government paralysis -- to create jobs and economic growth. Education is poor -- last year the government failed to deliver textbooks to some pupils for up to nine months.

The young are ubiquitous on the streets and they are now being attracted in significant numbers by the young, former ANC radical Julius Malema's breakaway party Economic Freedom Fighters. It advocates Zimbabwe-style nationalization and land grabs.

It is highly unlikely that these challenges will unseat Mandela's ANC from power - yet. However, with Mandela gone and the halo of the liberation era slowly slipping away, coupled with revulsion in many quarters of the rampant corruption and stasis of the current regime, a change is coming.

For many here, that change will come with the 2019 national elections. In the meantime, South Africa will have a noisy election in 2014, remain on an unremarkable growth path and fail to live up to the promise it showed when Mandela became president in 1994.

It is a path that the unemployed young, standing at the fence outside the largesse enjoyed by their leaders, may one day want to tilt at unless something is done, urgently, to improve their lives.

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